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The Ten Commandments Of Football Betting
Gambling is a mugs game, you can’t beat the bookies, right? The answer
is wrong!
There is good money to be made from football betting if you stick to
some simple basic rules.
Rule 1 - This is a golden rule, you must shop around for the best
value. Open accounts with as many online bookmakers as possible, they
nearly all offer free bets to entice you to open accounts with them. You
should have no loyalty to any bookmaker and the sole reason you should
be placing a bet with one is because you are getting the best price.
People who just use the nearest high street shop haven't got a chance.
Most Bookmakers have a profit margin of around 10% for football matches
but because different bookmakers offer different prices it is still
possible to swing the odds in your favour.
Rule 2 - Work out a staking plan. Once you have identified a value
bet the next question is "how much should I bet?". The answer to this
question is determined firstly, by how confident you are about the bet,
and secondly, by how much value you think you are getting. For example,
if you toss a coin in the air you have a 50% chance it will be heads and
a 50% chance it will be tales. The correct price for each outcome should
therefore be evens. But what if somebody offered you 3/1 that the coin
would land on heads, you are obviously being offered huge value and if
you repeated this bet ten times you would have to be incredibly unlucky
not to be in profit at the end. Whatever staking plan you have worked
out, this would obviously be a maximum bet scenario, you could still
lose but you have secured huge value and if you consistently bet when
the odds are in your favour you theoretically will make money in the
long run. Your staking plan should accommodate the fact that despite the
huge value any individual bet may lose.
Rule 3 - Never, EVER, chase. We've all been there, you've had a
terrible day and lost a lot of money, the live Spanish game is about to
come on and it’s the last game of the day. "Time to get my money back",
you say to yourself and you have a silly bet on Real Madrid at terrible
odds. To make things even worse Madrid concede a last minute goal to
level the game. They then go and miss a penalty deep in injury time,
what a disaster, your days losses just got worse! To make money betting
on football it is crucial that you have discipline. Just because a game
is on TV doesn't mean you have to bet on it. If you didn't identify a
value bet in the game at the start of the day then don't bet on it. We
all have bad days and there will be plenty of good value opportunities
to get your money back in the next set of fixtures. You must be
selective with your bets. If you do feel the need to bet on every game
you watch then keep your stakes small unless you have identified value.
Rule 4 - Stick to singles or doubles. It is hard enough predicting
the outcome of one match let alone five. Bookmakers love to promote
accumulator bets because they know the more selections you choose the
less likely you are to win. No matter how many teams you pick there will
always be one result that lets you down. Many people are attracted to
these bets by the possibilities of winning a lot of money from
relatively small stakes. You will find that if you increase your stakes
a little and stick to singles and doubles your profits will increase
long term.
Rule 5 - Pay close attention to team news. An injury to a key striker
or a suspended captain can sometimes greatly swing the odds in your
favour. As a general rule the higher the level of football the less
affect team news will have as the top clubs have large squads full of
quality players. The lower league teams however, operate with much
smaller squads and can have their chances of winning badly affected by
key players being injured or suspended. Be warned however, team news can
be misleading. Some clubs actively give out false information in order
to gain an advantage over their opponents so it is dangerous to base
your bet on team news alone.
Rule 6 - Choose which markets you bet on carefully. The best markets
to bet on are generally the match odds and some of the goals markets.
Halftime/fulltime, correct score, first goal scorer and other similar
markets have a higher profit margin built in by bookmakers and therefore
generally offer poor value. This is not always the case though and
occasionally you will find the odd juicy price in these markets. For
example, injuries may result in a midfield player starting up front
making him much better value to be first goal scorer. Asian Handicap
Odds are another market which you should make yourself familiar with.
The bookmakers profit margin on these markets is a lot lower and so
straight away you have more chance of finding value.
Rule 7 - Bend the rules in your favour. There are a number of things
you can do to achieve this. Firstly make sure you pick up a coupon from
your local shops at the start of the week. The prices printed on these
coupons are compiled up to a week ahead of the game and are often cut
online or on the phone. However the big two on the high street will hold
the prices printed on these coupons so you can often find a bigger price
on a shop coupon than you will be able to get online or even with the
exchanges. If there is a big move for a certain game then they might
impose restrictions of between £50-200 per customer, but you should
still be able to get on. Likewise, when there is a move online and the
match odds are cut you will sometimes find that a bookmaker has
forgotten to cut the "draw no bet" or maybe the "halftime/fulltime"
price. It is also worth keeping an eye on long term markets when games
are being played as you wouldn't believe how sloppy some bookmakers can
be at suspending markets. This can be especially useful near the end of
the season when it is clearer which teams might win the league or be
relegated.
Rule 8 - Keep records of all your bets. It is important to do this so
that you know exactly how much money you are making or losing. It will
help you decide on your staking plan and make it clear that you should
stop if you aren't making money in the long run.
Rule 9 - Stick to what you know and don't bet on leagues you haven't
been following. You can only get an edge on bookmakers if you have
better knowledge than they do on a certain league. If you don't usually
bet on Italian football but Milan are playing Inter on Channel five,
then don't bet on it. Accept that the bookmaker is likely to know much
more about the two teams than you do and that, as a result, you are
unlikely to beat him with bets on this league. Depending on how much
time you have free to study each league, you should be careful not to
overstretch yourself. Pick one or two leagues out and concentrate on
building up your knowledge of the players, managers, derbies and grudge
matches. Most odds compilers will have several leagues to cover and may
not have time to concentrate fully on each one.
Rule 10 - Don't get carried away by short term trends and always be
mindful of the bigger picture. This applies both to the leagues you are
betting on as well as your own results. For example, if a team has won
four games on the bounce then ask yourself "are they winning these games
because they are a good team or is it just a lucky run?". If you believe
they are a good team then keep backing them but if you think its a lucky
run that is likely to end soon, then you may well get the opportunity to
back one of their opponents at an inflated price. Man City's excellent
run of results at home at the start of the season was a good example.
City won their first nine home league games but if you thought this run
was going to continue indefinitely then you would have lost your next
six bets on them. Another good example is when one of the top teams is
having a good run in several different competitions. The media tend to
get carried away and soon start suggesting that this club can win all
four trophies. Bookmakers latch on to this and ridiculously short prices
for a quadruple appear in the Racing post prompting bets from hundreds
of mug punters. You should also be wary of "short termism" when it comes
to your own bets. In any given season you will have good spells and bad
spells and you should not get carried away with either. Stick to your
staking plan and don't start betting bigger and bigger because you are
having a good run. Don't go spending all your winnings either, keep a
betting fund and only withdraw from it once you have gone over a certain
level. You may need it to fall back on during a bad spell. Likewise,
don't get too upset by a bad run of results. Analyse your bets to see
where you may have gone wrong but don't be panicked into any rash
changes. Bad spells can be very disheartening, but if you know your
stuff and have made money in the past, then you probably aren't doing
too much wrong and the next good spell is just around the corner. The
end of the season is the best time to take stock and analyse your
performance over the season as a whole.
These rules should help you to tip the odds in your favour. It is
possible to make money from betting on football but you will need to
invest time and effort. It should be enjoyable too, a moneymaking hobby
if you like. If you find the bad spells too upsetting or stressful then
maybe it's not for you.
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