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BET TYPES EXPLAINED You can bet on just
about anything happening in football these days. Goals, corners,
bookings, correct score, first scorer, players to score hat tricks, to
be subbed, to be playing for a different club in six months time etc.
However, many of these markets have large profit margins built in by
bookmakers making it extremely difficult to make money from them. In
this article, I will try and explain some of the main ones I tend to bet
on myself and advise my clients to bet on over the course of the season.
Many of you will be fully aware of how these markets work, but I have
had plenty of e-mails over the course of the season asking me to explain
how Asian handicaps work, what draw no bet means, etc. Even if you do
think you know your stuff, the article is probably worth reading as
there is bound to be something that you were not previously aware of, or
might not have understood clearly.
1X2 MATCH ODDS
The most straight forward market and the one I will generally
recommend most bets from. You simply select "Home win", "Draw", or "Away
win". When filling out a coupon in a betting shop you would mark "1" for
a home win, "2" for a away win and "x" for a draw. Most major bookmakers
have a profit margin of between 5-12% built in. The equivalent market on
Betfair is available with no profit margin but you will have to pay
between 2-5% commission on your winnings.
NUMBER OF GOALS
There are several different markets relating to goals that we will be
interested in over the course of the season. The main goals market we
will be using will be Over/Under 2.5 goals. This sometimes confuses
people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such
thing as half a goal. Basically, if you back over, then you need three
goals to win, if you back under, then you want no more than two goals.
The profit margin on these bets, as well as most other markets with just
two outcomes, is usually between 6-8%. Some bookmakers, as well as
Betfair, offer over/under 1.5 goals and over/under 3.5 goals and these
markets work exactly the same way. "Total goals", is another goals
market which I sometimes bet on. Usually there will be three choices,
0-1, 2-3 and 4 or more. These are pretty self explanatory. This market
can sometimes throw up value if the bookmaker offering the market goes
too high or low on his goals quote. For example, in La Liga last year,
some bookmakers were not factoring in how many goals Sevilla and
Atletico Madrid were scoring in home games. This resulted in "4 or more"
offering value on several occasions.
CORRECT SCORE
Again, pretty self explanatory. It is important to remember that this
is a 90 minutes market only. If you back a team to win 1-0 in a cup game
and it's 0-0 after 90 minutes then your bet has lost, even if they go on
to win 1-0 in extra time. This is a market I generally avoid as the
bookies enjoy a hefty profit margin. However, occasionally, correct
score markets do throw up value. Last year for example, the 0-0 draw was
too big in France with Paddypower for a period and therefore represented
value. Unfortunately this period also coincided with the number of goals
in French games suddenly spiking, and we were unable to take advantage.
Many bookmakers also offer scorecast markets, in which you have to pick
out the correct score and the first goalscorer. This is very difficult
to do and consequently large prices are often available. However, the
prices are nowhere near large enough and it is a terrible bet from a
value point of view.
HALF TIME RESULT - HALF TIME / FULL TIME
The half time result is a market I very rarely get involved in. It's
not that it represents particularly bad value, it's just that it is
quite tricky to predict. Trends do emerge from time to time that might
make a bet worthwhile, for example, a team that doesn't concede or score
many goals might be drawing a lot of games at half time. If bookies
aren't manually compiling this market, as many don't (instead preferring
to use computer programs) then a small bit of value might emerge. Half
time / Full time is another market I very rarely bet on. The odds are
heavily in the bookies favour and prices have to be quite a way out of
line to become value.
FIRST / ANYTIME GOALSCORER
Two quite different markets in terms of value. First goalscorer is
generally one best avoided as the margin is again very big. Forwards are
nearly always artificially short and it is difficult enough predicting
which player will score in a game let alone who will score first. The
introduction of each way betting with first goalscorers by several
bookmakers in the last couple of years has improved things to some
extent. With each way terms covering the first three scorers it is
fairly similar to an anytime goalscorer bet. With Anytime scorer bets
there often seems to be value with certain firms, especially William
Hills. It is a relatively new bet and Hills do not seem to be getting
their prices right. I suspect they are using a computer program and a
glance at Ladbrokes usually shows them to be best price by quite a way
on most players. Anytime scorer bets should only be considered when
there is a high goals quote as obviously, the more goals there are in a
game the more chance your player has of scoring. One note of caution
however, different firms have different rules when it comes to anytime
goalscorer markets. The majority class a player as a runner if he takes
part in any part of the game and therefore it is very important that
your player is starting. If he comes on for the last five minutes and
fails to score then your bet will stand and have very little chance of
winning. William Hills rules on the other hand, state that if a player
does not start the game then he is a non runner and you get your money
back.
TO WIN TO NIL
This is a variation on the correct score market and only a few
bookmakers tend to offer it. Basically, you are backing a team to win by
any score to nil. It is best used when you want to back a short priced
team who are solid defensively, or maybe playing a team who don't score
many goals or who have injury problems up front. Chelsea are a good
example from last year, they were solid defensively and ended up winning
eighteen league matches "to nil". This is another market that is often
computer generated and value prices do occasionally appear.
DRAW NO BET
Does exactly what it says on the tin. You are backing a team and
taking away the risk of a draw. If the game finishes level then you
simply get your money back. This market is best used when you fancy a
side to win but they tend to draw a lot of games, or maybe you are
betting in a league where there are a lot of draws such as the French
league. You are sacrificing the bigger price you would get backing the
team to win in the match odds, for the insurance of getting your money
back in the event of a draw. Exactly the same bet is available on the
Asian Handicap Odds.
ASIAN HANDICAP ODDS
A market that causes a great deal of confusion but often offers very
good value. It got the name "Asian Handicap Odds" because it is the
preferred form of betting in the Far East. Profit margins are far lower
than most other markets, often just a couple of percent. I will try to
explain how they work as simply as I can. Don't worry if you don't
understand it straight away, many people don't, take your time and read
over what I have written a couple of times. You can play around with it
on Betfair too, just pick a game, click on Asian handicaps and click the
"back" box. A bet slip will appear on the right hand side explaining
what you win or lose from each outcome. The simplest type of Asian
handicap is exactly the same bet as draw no bet. Both teams will appear
with a +0 next to them, the bet is void in the event of a draw.
Another type of Asian Handicap Odds is to back a team +1 or -1. You
might back an outsider +1 or back a strong favourite -1. Backing a
strong favourite -1 is basically backing them to win by more than one
goal. If they win by exactly one goal then you lose nothing and your
stake is returned as the one goal margin they have won by is cancelled
out by the -1 handicap. If they win by two or more then your bet is a
winner.
A slightly more complicated Asian Handicap Odds is backing a team to
win +1.5 or -1.5. This should be thought of in exactly the same way as
over/under 2.5 goals. If the team you are backing -1.5 wins by two goals
then your bet is a winner, if they win by only one goal then your bet is
a loser.
It is the same as backing a team -1 only you have no insurance if the
team wins by one goal. Remember if you back a team -1 and they win by
one, then you get your money back, but if you back them -1.5 and they
win by one then the bet is a loser. The most complicated Asian Handicap
Odds is when the previous two bets are combined and you are given the
option of backing a team -1 & -1.5. Although it looks very complicated
it is actually quite simple. All you have to do to understand it is
split the bet in two. Half of your bet is for "team A" to win -1 and the
other half of your stake is for "team A" to win -1.5. If we back team A
at evens to win -1 & -1.5 for a £100 stake, then the following will
happen:
Team A wins by 2 goals or more = win £100 (Both parts of the bet have
won); Team A wins by 1 goal = lose £50 (you get your money back for the
first part of the bet but lose £50 on the second part); Team A does not
win = lose £100 (both parts of your bet have lost).
Asian Handicap Odds are most useful if you want to back a short
priced favourite to win by a big margin or for an outsider to only lose
by a small margin or to draw. For example, if you back a team +1 then
you have both the draw and them winning as positive results. To
conclude, the above bet types are the main ones you should be familiar
with. The vast majority of bets that I recommend will be in the match
odds or from one of the goals markets. There are many other weird and
wonderful markets out there but they are generally poor value and best
avoided.
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